The differences between what I’m SEEING as I research the data for our upcoming market update series and what I’m HEARING from buyers, sellers, and colleagues is kind of stunning.
For instance, all the data I can find says that foreclosures are only back to their 2020 levels—but I’m seeing in my own seller calls and hearing from others that there’s been a HUGE increase in the number of sellers who are WAY more behind than we’ve seen in a decade, and who aren’t qualifying for modifications, and who in fact are sort of being abused by their lenders in the sense that when they ask for payoffs or reinstatement numbers, they’re not getting them.
The data sources say that properties are selling faster than ever, but I’m hearing from retailers that the days on market (to an accepted offer) has doubled, and that the number of accepted offers that ‘fall out of escrow’ has increased a lot, and that properties that are priced too high don’t get offers anymore, and that smart retailers are being way more conservative in how they’re buying and how they’re pricing their finished deals.
I’m reading that ‘asking rents’ are up double digits, but hearing that vacancy rates in apartments are up, and starting to see those “move in special” signs again.
I’m reading that there’s no recession, but hearing that people are being laid off, or that their job offers are being pulled, and I’m finding that more and more of my favorite restaurants and small businesses are closing up shop forever.
I learned a long time ago that the word on the street, if there’s enough of it, beats media reports by months or even full quarters—and I plan based on what lots of smart, active investors are telling me, not on the data I’m being fed.
I trust what I’m experiencing and what other folks in the market are experiencing to guide my actions in changing markets, every time.
And the only way to hear the “word on the street” is to, you know, BE there. Go where your colleagues are: meetings, focus group meetings, haves and wants meetings, and converse. It’s mostly in an informal conversation that you hear these little bits of data (“My last 2 retail deals both fell out of escrow twice!” “My wholesale buyers are getting really conservative!” “I’ve talked to more sellers underwater on their mortgages in the last 3 months than I had in the prior 5 years!”) that tell you where to put your focus.
I’m going to try to bring a lot of this “on the street” information into my market update on September 7th; if you happen to be reading this before October 12th (2022), you can register for the whole SERIES of online “How to Thrive in the New Real Estate Market” HERE.
And tell us: what are you hearing or experiencing in your market?